Volume 2010, Issue No.11.Dt 9th Nov 2010 at 3h08m PM
1st Nov 2010 to 9th Nov 2010 Weather & the Astronomy Study at Visakhapatnam
by
Professor Dr Kotcherlakota Lakshmi Narayana,
{Retd.Prof. of Phys, SU} 17-11-10, Narsimha Ashram, Official Colony, Maharanipeta.P.O, Visakhapatnam-530002.
ABSTRACT:
2010 November month offered dramatic changes of weather and the scenario of sky for the Astronomy study. The sudden downpour of heavy rain by just an ordinary low-pressure region of Bay of Bengal sent waves of fear among the people and the government which was caught unaware. The phenomenon was unintelligible even to the weather experts. The Leh region also had heavy rains not much covered in local news and TV reporting. Integrated view of weather observations has not become the practice of the day by weather reviewers.
TEXT OF THE ARTICLE:
a.Volcanoes:
The October 31st, 2010 the Sunday the Meripi Mountain in Indonesia has erupted releasing grey colored Ash and Hot Air into the atmosphere. The rain in Visakhapatnam stopped the down pour at around 10.45AM but the sky remained cloudy. On three days 29th to 31st Oct0ber 2010 it rained nearly 20cms causing havoc damaging the houses and the streets. The hills had several slipovers.
b.Heavy Rain:
The reservoirs are full and with excessive fresh rain water lost to the Bay of Bengal.
Reservoir Max Units 1st Nov 2010 Release in Cusecs
Thandava 380 feet 378 1200
Rywada 114 meters 113.5 1200
Konam 101 meters 100.3 1350
Peddaru 137 meters 136.36 6.1
Varaha 460 feet 458.5 15
Gambhir 126 feet 124
Mehadhri 61 feet 60.1 7.5
From the last three days 29th to 31st Oct0ber 2010 heavy rain devastated Vizianagaram, Visakhapatnam, Nellore, Prakasam, Both Godavari Districts, damaging 5400 houses, displacing 28577 people from low submergible areas, with the standing crops of 11000 acres of farms in Visakhapatnam, Srikakulum, Vijayanagaram, East Godavari, Krishna, Nellore and damaged 7lack acres of produce. About 237321hecta-acres of rice fields got submerged. 20000hecta-acres cotton, maize, soya beans and other like crops have been affected heavily. It’s very interesting from purely weather predictions point of view that the heavy rained that lashed Andhra Pradesh coastal area.
c. Cms of Downpour by a silent and deceiving low-depression:
The rain of last three days 29th to 31st Oct0ber 2010 of about 16cms to 20cms occurred elsewhere in the coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh. What caused the incorporation of so much of wetness into the low-depression that resulted in a phenomenal rain of downpour (locally referred as the Khumbha Vrishti)? The phenomenon has given a fear among the people that the dangers of natural disasters are awaiting their grudge on the population. The rain led to slipovers of several hill regions and damaged the roads and delayed train movement resulting in the delayed transport of essential commodities. The Onion price has suddenly shot up to Rs. 30/- per Kg. The total disaster management needs an integrated effort (ECRBF see below for details) of Masons, Carpenters, and Plumbers, Cleaners and water-proof painters, etc technical volunteer organizations to work as free public Seva society or as centers available on call just like the No.108 Van for health line help. The idea is that the low-cost houses should be built above the rain water accumulation and flow levels. The Engineering and Technology students of universities like JNTU should undertake the studies immediately and report to the Government why submerging of low-cost and the poor people homes is occurring in India quite frequently? Also instant pumping and water outlet facilities need to be provided. In this context the “Emergency Construction, Repair and Build Force” (ECRBF) suggested by the present author would help the poor and also the needy people affected by the rains. They should be ready at a beacon call. Public services are as vital just as the communication cells of the Cyber activity.
d. Unintelligible:
This could not be understood nor intelligible to many a weather experts since the low-depression of 29th to 31st Oct0ber 2010 would not have been able to give so much of a rain and why it lingered for three days up in the sky from 2 to 5kms height?. The one explanation is that the wet water somehow engulfed the low-depression that led to a heavy downpour almost of 31cm in 24 hours in Amalapuram from Sunday morning 8h00m to Monday morning 8h00m. The idea that temperature alone the main cause and the only cause of the formation of low-depression and eventual storms has got totally shattered among the weather experts.
e. November Month:
The coastal line of Andhra Pradesh extends from Srikakulum to Nellore measuring about 970kms. Cyclones disturb the sea and cause incursions into the land. Lat 30 years there were about 42 cyclones that devastated the coastal beach areas. About 44% of AP state gets damaged by the cyclones each year. Super cyclone of 1999 affected the Orissa state very badly. Nizampatnam and Masllipatnam in AP state are usually the centers of Cyclone hits. In 1977 the Devi sema (island region) had the enormous destruction by a whirling cyclone that caused fire rain in Guntur district. In 1966 the Bhiravapalem in Kakinad had a huge cyclone and experienced submerged land. In the last 110 years a total of 60 cyclones touched the AP state coastal area. In every about two to three years the AP coast had the huge or super cyclone hits. About 4 crore people live in the shade of cyclone regions. From coast to inland a distance of 5kms people living in villages number about 3.3 million. In about 100 years the AP state in month of May had 13 huge cyclones. (Penu thufaoonulu). From year 1892 to 1997 about 71 cyclones that hit the coast were recorded. From 1892 to 1977 the 56 cyclones resulted in huge loss of property and many deaths. In 100years time 10 cyclones, 4 huge cyclones touched Srikakulum. In Visakhapatnam about 7 cyclones and 3 huge cyclones affected the living conditions. East Godavari had 4 huge cyclones and 11 cyclones. Krishna Zilla had 8 huge cyclones and 13 cyclones. Guntur had only one super cyclone and two cyclones. Prakasam had two huge cyclones and 4 cyclones. Nellore experienced about 11 huge cyclones and 21 storms. The storms classification is of seven types. Low-pressure that has 31km/h speed, Depression with 49kmph speed, Vayugundamu (windy cyclone) 61 kmph speed, cyclone (thufanoo) with 88 kmph, huge cyclone with 221kmph, super cyclone with 222kmph. The present November 4th to 8th, 2010 super cyclone with 222kmph has spared the Visakhapatnam coast but with some sea incursions into land on the New Moon day 5th November 2010.In 2007 Genco produced 2400million units of electricity, and water resource projects gave about 1.95lack acres of land for the produce. This year in 2010 about 2.20 lack acres are being provided with project water for agriculture. Srisailam dam released about 26lack cusecs water this year when it had a capacity of only 19lacks.
f. ‘JAL’ over southeast Bay of Bengal
The 3rd November 2010 at Visakhapatnam began with a bright sunshine with the weather official MID report of a threatening low-depression that might develop as a killer storm by 4th or 5th November 2010. The Southern Andaman low-depression turned into cyclonic storm is moving towards Bay of Bengal Sea at present situated 1200km from Visakhapatnam. Rayalseema North Tamil Nadu might receive rains from it.
The cyclonic storm, ‘JAL’ over southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and lay centered at 1730 hrs IST of today, the Cyclone at present 800 km east-southeast of Chennai and 1000 km southeast of Visakhapatnam. It would intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm. The system would move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Puducherry and Nellore close to Chennai by 7th November 2010 night. The Severe cyclonic storm, ‘JAL’ remained practically stationary and lay centered at 0830 hrs IST of 6th Nov 2010, over southwest Bay of Bengal near lat.10.00N and long. 85.50E about 500 km east-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 650 km east-southeast of Chennai and 750 km southeast of Nellore. It would intensify further, move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Puducherry and Nellore close to Chennai on 7th November 2010 Sunday night. Gale winds with speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph prevailed along and off north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coast from Saturday evening. It increased up to 120-130 kmph, gusting to 140 kmph at the time of landfall. Why the Super cyclone has moved very fast during the 6th and 7th November 2010 to the Coast?
g. SEA INCURSION:
The sea has entered almost 2km in some places and several feet in other (Upputeru) salty streams of the Coastal Districts of Andhra Pradesh, but it didn’t rain in Visakhapatnam during the days 3rd to 6th Nov 2010 and the Sunshine was sufficiently good in a cool weather. On 7th morning it rained from 7:30 AM. The nights were almost cloudy and the visibility poor. In spite of the weather conditions the Jupiter Planet magnificently hovered in the sky rest assuring the people not to get alarmed of the furious weather. The 4th Nov 2010 night, only the Jupiter and the Famous triangle of Deneb, Altair and Vega stars could be observed. The stars on the east and the south east were barely visible. The New Moon night was totally cloudy and no stars except the Jupiter planet were visible. Police patrolling siren prevented stay at the beach at 10h30mPM to observe the sky and the sea. The 6th Nov 2010 began with a good sunshine but sun shrouded in clouds.
The weather phenomenon clearly has several other parameters to study and Temperature of the Bay of Bengal Sea cannot be cited as the single cause of the cyclones or the Sea incursions on to the land.
JAL cyclone low depression that became an ordinary storm crossed north of Chennai in the morning of Monday 8th Nov 2010 land at 2hAM time but became transformed as an ordinary storm concentrated 50kms away from Anathapuram that travelled via rayalseema in AP and moved towards Karnataka State. It affected six districts in AP and gave interminant rain in Vempalli (7Cms), Nellore, Thambala palli, Hindupuram, Kadhiri, Madaksira, Kandukuri, Sullurpeta (each 7 Cms), Chitoor (puttur 11Cms), Kadappah (kuppam, Rayachole 10cms) and Anathapuram. Even on Tuesday 9th November 2010 (Naga Chavathi festival day) the Visakhapatnam weather was cloudy with visibility reduced by about 49%.
The Northeast (Esanya Ruth pavanalu) Monsoon giving heavy rains in Srikakulum and even without any affect of the JAL cyclone it rained in Palasa about 27cms.
h. Astronomy Images:
3rd night and the 4th Nov 2010 morning the stars in the sky gave a spectacular scenario with the Hunter and the Virgo constellations that were clearly observed. The day was best suited for Telescope observations but alas author has no such facility with him. His letter to the Ind. Institute of Astrophysics, Bangalore was not acknowledged for provision of a tripod stand for 3.25inch high school student telescope. A very interesting image of the Moon on the night just one day before the New Moon night was very fascinating with the shadow of the earth on the Moon giving a transcendental feeling. The Jupiter in Aquarius gave a beautiful view of the Zenith sky around 9h00mPM. The morning of 4th Nov 2010 Moon in Virgo and the Hunter of Orion Constellation gave a glimpse of the Milky Way. Jupiter could be imaged along with the Altair of Aquila Constellation. The other bright star in cloudy and hazy environment of this triangle formation was very prominent in the sky in spite of the Super Cyclone clouds that were located near to Chennai.
Fig 1
a.Volcanoes:
The October 31st, 2010 the Sunday the Meripi Mountain in Indonesia has erupted releasing grey colored Ash and Hot Air into the atmosphere. The rain in Visakhapatnam stopped the down pour at around 10.45AM but the sky remained cloudy. On three days 29th to 31st Oct0ber 2010 it rained nearly 20cms causing havoc damaging the houses and the streets. The hills had several slipovers.
b.Heavy Rain:
The reservoirs are full and with excessive fresh rain water lost to the Bay of Bengal.
Reservoir Max Units 1st Nov 2010 Release in Cusecs
Thandava 380 feet 378 1200
Rywada 114 meters 113.5 1200
Konam 101 meters 100.3 1350
Peddaru 137 meters 136.36 6.1
Varaha 460 feet 458.5 15
Gambhir 126 feet 124
Mehadhri 61 feet 60.1 7.5
From the last three days 29th to 31st Oct0ber 2010 heavy rain devastated Vizianagaram, Visakhapatnam, Nellore, Prakasam, Both Godavari Districts, damaging 5400 houses, displacing 28577 people from low submergible areas, with the standing crops of 11000 acres of farms in Visakhapatnam, Srikakulum, Vijayanagaram, East Godavari, Krishna, Nellore and damaged 7lack acres of produce. About 237321hecta-acres of rice fields got submerged. 20000hecta-acres cotton, maize, soya beans and other like crops have been affected heavily. It’s very interesting from purely weather predictions point of view that the heavy rained that lashed Andhra Pradesh coastal area.
c. Cms of Downpour by a silent and deceiving low-depression:
The rain of last three days 29th to 31st Oct0ber 2010 of about 16cms to 20cms occurred elsewhere in the coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh. What caused the incorporation of so much of wetness into the low-depression that resulted in a phenomenal rain of downpour (locally referred as the Khumbha Vrishti)? The phenomenon has given a fear among the people that the dangers of natural disasters are awaiting their grudge on the population. The rain led to slipovers of several hill regions and damaged the roads and delayed train movement resulting in the delayed transport of essential commodities. The Onion price has suddenly shot up to Rs. 30/- per Kg. The total disaster management needs an integrated effort (ECRBF see below for details) of Masons, Carpenters, and Plumbers, Cleaners and water-proof painters, etc technical volunteer organizations to work as free public Seva society or as centers available on call just like the No.108 Van for health line help. The idea is that the low-cost houses should be built above the rain water accumulation and flow levels. The Engineering and Technology students of universities like JNTU should undertake the studies immediately and report to the Government why submerging of low-cost and the poor people homes is occurring in India quite frequently? Also instant pumping and water outlet facilities need to be provided. In this context the “Emergency Construction, Repair and Build Force” (ECRBF) suggested by the present author would help the poor and also the needy people affected by the rains. They should be ready at a beacon call. Public services are as vital just as the communication cells of the Cyber activity.
d. Unintelligible:
This could not be understood nor intelligible to many a weather experts since the low-depression of 29th to 31st Oct0ber 2010 would not have been able to give so much of a rain and why it lingered for three days up in the sky from 2 to 5kms height?. The one explanation is that the wet water somehow engulfed the low-depression that led to a heavy downpour almost of 31cm in 24 hours in Amalapuram from Sunday morning 8h00m to Monday morning 8h00m. The idea that temperature alone the main cause and the only cause of the formation of low-depression and eventual storms has got totally shattered among the weather experts.
e. November Month:
The coastal line of Andhra Pradesh extends from Srikakulum to Nellore measuring about 970kms. Cyclones disturb the sea and cause incursions into the land. Lat 30 years there were about 42 cyclones that devastated the coastal beach areas. About 44% of AP state gets damaged by the cyclones each year. Super cyclone of 1999 affected the Orissa state very badly. Nizampatnam and Masllipatnam in AP state are usually the centers of Cyclone hits. In 1977 the Devi sema (island region) had the enormous destruction by a whirling cyclone that caused fire rain in Guntur district. In 1966 the Bhiravapalem in Kakinad had a huge cyclone and experienced submerged land. In the last 110 years a total of 60 cyclones touched the AP state coastal area. In every about two to three years the AP coast had the huge or super cyclone hits. About 4 crore people live in the shade of cyclone regions. From coast to inland a distance of 5kms people living in villages number about 3.3 million. In about 100 years the AP state in month of May had 13 huge cyclones. (Penu thufaoonulu). From year 1892 to 1997 about 71 cyclones that hit the coast were recorded. From 1892 to 1977 the 56 cyclones resulted in huge loss of property and many deaths. In 100years time 10 cyclones, 4 huge cyclones touched Srikakulum. In Visakhapatnam about 7 cyclones and 3 huge cyclones affected the living conditions. East Godavari had 4 huge cyclones and 11 cyclones. Krishna Zilla had 8 huge cyclones and 13 cyclones. Guntur had only one super cyclone and two cyclones. Prakasam had two huge cyclones and 4 cyclones. Nellore experienced about 11 huge cyclones and 21 storms. The storms classification is of seven types. Low-pressure that has 31km/h speed, Depression with 49kmph speed, Vayugundamu (windy cyclone) 61 kmph speed, cyclone (thufanoo) with 88 kmph, huge cyclone with 221kmph, super cyclone with 222kmph. The present November 4th to 8th, 2010 super cyclone with 222kmph has spared the Visakhapatnam coast but with some sea incursions into land on the New Moon day 5th November 2010.In 2007 Genco produced 2400million units of electricity, and water resource projects gave about 1.95lack acres of land for the produce. This year in 2010 about 2.20 lack acres are being provided with project water for agriculture. Srisailam dam released about 26lack cusecs water this year when it had a capacity of only 19lacks.
f. ‘JAL’ over southeast Bay of Bengal
The 3rd November 2010 at Visakhapatnam began with a bright sunshine with the weather official MID report of a threatening low-depression that might develop as a killer storm by 4th or 5th November 2010. The Southern Andaman low-depression turned into cyclonic storm is moving towards Bay of Bengal Sea at present situated 1200km from Visakhapatnam. Rayalseema North Tamil Nadu might receive rains from it.
The cyclonic storm, ‘JAL’ over southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and lay centered at 1730 hrs IST of today, the Cyclone at present 800 km east-southeast of Chennai and 1000 km southeast of Visakhapatnam. It would intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm. The system would move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Puducherry and Nellore close to Chennai by 7th November 2010 night. The Severe cyclonic storm, ‘JAL’ remained practically stationary and lay centered at 0830 hrs IST of 6th Nov 2010, over southwest Bay of Bengal near lat.10.00N and long. 85.50E about 500 km east-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 650 km east-southeast of Chennai and 750 km southeast of Nellore. It would intensify further, move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Puducherry and Nellore close to Chennai on 7th November 2010 Sunday night. Gale winds with speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph prevailed along and off north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coast from Saturday evening. It increased up to 120-130 kmph, gusting to 140 kmph at the time of landfall. Why the Super cyclone has moved very fast during the 6th and 7th November 2010 to the Coast?
g. SEA INCURSION:
The sea has entered almost 2km in some places and several feet in other (Upputeru) salty streams of the Coastal Districts of Andhra Pradesh, but it didn’t rain in Visakhapatnam during the days 3rd to 6th Nov 2010 and the Sunshine was sufficiently good in a cool weather. On 7th morning it rained from 7:30 AM. The nights were almost cloudy and the visibility poor. In spite of the weather conditions the Jupiter Planet magnificently hovered in the sky rest assuring the people not to get alarmed of the furious weather. The 4th Nov 2010 night, only the Jupiter and the Famous triangle of Deneb, Altair and Vega stars could be observed. The stars on the east and the south east were barely visible. The New Moon night was totally cloudy and no stars except the Jupiter planet were visible. Police patrolling siren prevented stay at the beach at 10h30mPM to observe the sky and the sea. The 6th Nov 2010 began with a good sunshine but sun shrouded in clouds.
The weather phenomenon clearly has several other parameters to study and Temperature of the Bay of Bengal Sea cannot be cited as the single cause of the cyclones or the Sea incursions on to the land.
JAL cyclone low depression that became an ordinary storm crossed north of Chennai in the morning of Monday 8th Nov 2010 land at 2hAM time but became transformed as an ordinary storm concentrated 50kms away from Anathapuram that travelled via rayalseema in AP and moved towards Karnataka State. It affected six districts in AP and gave interminant rain in Vempalli (7Cms), Nellore, Thambala palli, Hindupuram, Kadhiri, Madaksira, Kandukuri, Sullurpeta (each 7 Cms), Chitoor (puttur 11Cms), Kadappah (kuppam, Rayachole 10cms) and Anathapuram. Even on Tuesday 9th November 2010 (Naga Chavathi festival day) the Visakhapatnam weather was cloudy with visibility reduced by about 49%.
The Northeast (Esanya Ruth pavanalu) Monsoon giving heavy rains in Srikakulum and even without any affect of the JAL cyclone it rained in Palasa about 27cms.
h. Astronomy Images:
3rd night and the 4th Nov 2010 morning the stars in the sky gave a spectacular scenario with the Hunter and the Virgo constellations that were clearly observed. The day was best suited for Telescope observations but alas author has no such facility with him. His letter to the Ind. Institute of Astrophysics, Bangalore was not acknowledged for provision of a tripod stand for 3.25inch high school student telescope. A very interesting image of the Moon on the night just one day before the New Moon night was very fascinating with the shadow of the earth on the Moon giving a transcendental feeling. The Jupiter in Aquarius gave a beautiful view of the Zenith sky around 9h00mPM. The morning of 4th Nov 2010 Moon in Virgo and the Hunter of Orion Constellation gave a glimpse of the Milky Way. Jupiter could be imaged along with the Altair of Aquila Constellation. The other bright star in cloudy and hazy environment of this triangle formation was very prominent in the sky in spite of the Super Cyclone clouds that were located near to Chennai.
Fig 1
Fig 2
Fig 3
Fig 4
Fig 5
Fig 6
Fig 7
Fig 8
Fig 9
Fig 9
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT:
I am deeply indebted to late Prof K Rangadhama Rao D.Sc. (Madras). D.Sc. (London) at JVD College of Science & Technology, Waltair, for his support of my studies in Fundamental Physics.
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